The Heartland Institute’s “500 scientist” list

The Heartland Institute’s Dennis Avery has produced a list of “500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares”. It turns out that many of those scientists don’t agree with him. DeSmogBlog is tracking the story.

Dennis T. Avery of the Heartland Institute.

In two previous posts, I looked at the PR techniques used by the tobacco industry to create doubt about the health risks of smoking, and how these techniques have been transferred to the global warming debate. The need to manufacture a sense of scientific uncertainty is a recurring theme in the strategies. One approach is to put together a panel of rival experts.

Here, Fred Panzer, vice-president of the Tobacco Institute, puts forward the “Roper Proposal” for a panel of experts to counter the Surgeon General’s report on the health effects of smoking ^[1]. The year is 1972:

Select a panel of experts to consult on the design of the study. Ideally they would be prestige figures who would initially have a solid contribution to make and who would also be willing to endorse the study publicly at a later stage. [...] If the results are favorable, release them as a book [...] In effect, such a book would be a counter-Surgeon General’s report. [...] And best of all, it would only have to be seen – not read – to be believed…just like the Surgeon General’s report.

F. Panzer, The Roper Proposal, 1972
Bates No. 2024274199/4202 ^[1]

Moving forward thirty years, Republican public opinion researcher Frank Luntz sets out a plan to cope with the scientific evidence for global warming. Again, a panel of experts is needed ^[2]:

You need to be even more active in recruiting experts who are sympathetic to your view, and much more active in making them part of your message.

Frank Luntz,
Winning the Global Warming Debate – An Overview ^[2]

The Heartland Institute promotes tobacco and oil interests, so it seems to be ideally suited to the task. Sure enough, Heartland’s Dennis Avery has now had a go at compiling a list of experts who doubt man-made global warming. In the event, things haven’t gone smoothly for him. The trick is to find experts “sympathetic to your view”. That’s the detail he’s overlooked.

Let’s see how Dennis fared. In September 2007 he produced a press release headlined “500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares: Alphabetical List” ^[3] [4], claiming:

The following list includes more than 500 qualified researchers whose research in professional journals provides historic and/or physical proxy evidence that:

1)  Most of the recent global warming has been caused by a long, moderate, natural cycle rather than by the burning of fossil fuels;
  [...and six more listed items...]

Dennis T. Avery,
500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made
Global Warming Scares: Alphabetical List ^[3]

Attached to the press release was the list of the 500 scientists. The title of the list is “Co‑Authors: Alphabetical List” ^[5]. The scientists’ research isn’t simply being cited in support of the Heartland Institute’s claims. The scientists are listed as coauthors of the Heartland report.

The list of Dennis Avery’s coauthors immediately looks odd. Some of the scientists are dead, some don’t exist ^[6], and the deceased astrologer Theodor Landscheidt is on it. Extraordinarily, Michael Mann, the author of the “hockey stick” paper, and one of the scientists running the RealClimate blog, is on the list as a coauthor “whose research contradicts man-made global warming” !

Something doesn’t add up. Last month Kevin Grandia of the DeSmogBlog climate blog started emailing the scientists Dennis Avery names as his coauthors ^{[7] [8] [9] [10]}. It turns out that their role in the report has come as a complete surprise to many of them. Here’s a sample of the scientists’ comments to DeSmogBlog: “lack of scruples”; “totally unethical”;  “outraged that they’ve included me”;  “misrepresents my research”  and “a major ethical transgression”.

“I am horrified to find my name on such a list”  writes Prof. David Sugden of the University of Edinburgh (or “Edinborough” as Dennis Avery spells it – geography’s not his strong point either). Here are some more of the comments DeSmogBlog has received from the scientists named by Dennis Avery as his “coauthors”. Some of the emails were sent directly to Joseph Bast, Heartland’s president:

Prof. Eugenia Kalnay  Distinguished University Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland	“	This is just another example of lack of scruples that climate skeptics have shown in pursuing short-term financial advantages, and basically condemning the next generations to suffer the consequences of climate change due to our lack of prudent and responsible planning.”	”
Prof. David Sugden  Professor of Geography, University of Edinburgh	“	I am horrified to find my name on such a list. I have spent the last 20 years arguing the opposite.	”
Prof. Gregory Cutter  Department of Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University	“	I have NO doubts [...] the recent changes in global climate ARE man-induced. I insist that you immediately remove my name from this list since I did not give you permission to put it there.	”
Prof. Robert Whittaker  Professor of Biogeography, University of Oxford	“	I don’t believe any of my work can be used to support any of the statements listed in the article.	”
Dr. Svante Bjorck  Geo Biosphere Science Centre, Lund University	“	Please remove my name. What you have done is totally unethical!!	”
Dr. John Clague  Shrum Research Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University	“	I’m outraged that they’ve included me as an “author” of this report. I do not share the views expressed in the summary.	”
Dr. Ming Cai  Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University	“	I am very shocked to see my name in the list of “500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares”. Because none of my research publications has ever indicated that the global warming is not as a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, I view that the inclusion of my name in such list without my permission or consensus has damaged my professional reputation as an atmospheric scientist.	”
Peter F. Almasi  Ph.D. Candidate in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Columbia University	“	Just because you document natural climate variability doesn’t mean anthropogenic global warming is not a threat. In fact I would venture that most on that list believe a natural cycle and anthropogenic change combined represent a greater threat.	”
Dr. James P. Berry  Senior Scientist, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute	“	Why can’t people spend their time trying to identify and evaluate the facts concerning climate change rather than trying to obscure them?	”
Dr. Paul F. Schuster  Hydrologist, US Geological Survey	“	They have taken our ice core research in Wyoming and twisted it to meet their own agenda. This is not science.	”
Dr. Mary A. Coffroth  Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo	“	Please remove my name IMMEDIATELY from the following article and from the list which misrepresents my research.	”
Prof. S. Leatherman  Chair Professor and Director, International Hurricane Research Center & Laboratory for Coastal Research, Florida International University	“	Dear Mr. Joseph Blast, Please remove my name from your list of climate skeptics. While I believe that there are a lot of unknowns, especially how much sea level will rise in coming decades, it is clear that the earth is warming and apparent that humans are playing a role. My actual area of expertise is sea level rise impacts, and the coastal system is hard wired everything else being equal so that sea level rise causes beach erosion and wetland loss.	”
Prof. J. Overpeck  Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona	“	My work in no way casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. The true state of the science is that we know of no natural process or cycle that could explain the bulk of the current global warming and many associated changes. The recent IPCC report is clear on this issue. It is not appropriate for my name to be listed in support of the assertion being made by the Heartland Institute.	”
Prof. Jeff Severinghaus  Professor of Geosciences, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego	“	I recently learned from a colleague that I am listed on your (the Heartland Institute’s) website as one of 500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares. Please remove my name from the list of “coauthors” on your website. I do not agree with the conclusions attributed to my name, and in no sense did I “coauthor” anything on your website. P.S. Using my name (and many others) in this way is a major ethical transgression.	”
Prof. Brian Huntley  Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University	“	Dear Sir, It has just been drawn to my attention that my name is included on a list of 500 “co-authors” of a report published on the www by your organization. I have read that report and the list of conclusions reached and I find that I disagree most strongly with these conclusions. Quite apart from my disagreement about the conclusions reached, however, it is QUITE UNACCEPTABLE to have one’s name associated with such a report as a “co-author” without one’s explicit prior agreement. I ask, therefore, that my name be removed from that list FORTHWITH. Please acknowledge receipt of this e-mail and also confirm that my name has been removed from this list.	”
Dr. Matt McGlone  Science Team Leader, Biodiversity & Conservation, Landcare Research, Canterbury, New Zealand	“	Hi: Apparently I am listed on the Heartland list as someone whose work casts doubt on whether greenhouse warming is occurring. I am loath to give Heartland any publicity, but I am prepared to state for the record that I, personally, do not believe that my published work supports the idea that current greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are not the main driver behind the observed 20th century warming trend. My work does document times in the 120 000 years when temperatures appear to have been higher than at present, but I do not regard these results as undermining the international consensus as to the reality of changes over the last century. Yours sincerely, Matt McGlone	”
Prof. Jan Kramers  Institut für Geologie, Universität Bern	“	Dear Dr Bast, It has come to my notice that my name appears on a list of so-called co-authors to an article accessible on your website in which it is claimed that current global warming and associated problems are not primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels. I ask you to please remove my name from the list of 500 supposed authors of this article. The article is, in my view, an example of very bad science as it is eclectic, and further twists evidence, ultimately citing published work in the opposite sense. The ethics of it all are also problematic, as the article is quite obviously construed to serve the interests of a narrow group. That is not what science should be about. Further, it is well known that prospective co-authors must be asked first about the inclusion of their name on an article, before it is published. And posting on the Web constitutes publication. You are thus contravening good practice in a number of ways. I know quite a few people on your list, and am absolutely convinced that none of these would wish to be associated with your article. Concerning the removal of my name, I will regularly check and will contact you again if I find it has not been done. Then I might be slightly less polite. With best regards, Jan Kramers	”

So it turns out that Dennis Avery hasn’t quite got the hang of the “list-of-experts” routine. He forgot to check that his “coauthors” actually hold the views he attributes to them. In fact, he forgot to check with them at all. It’s hard to say how Dennis Avery came up with his list of 500 coauthors, but many of them don’t seem to be too happy about being on his list. Normally, coauthorship would require the knowledge and agreement of the named coauthor. Indeed, the coauthor might even be expected to actually write some part of the report.

State Of Play

May 4, 2008: 
Where do things stand today? Has the Heartland Institute responded to the scientists’ requests and modified its list of “coauthors” yet?

No, but rather amusingly they have retrospectively edited the headline of the press release, while keeping the publication date the same. The original headline was “500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares: Alphabetical List”. That’s quietly been altered to “500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares”. The blogger F. Bi prudently kept a cached copy and spotted the change ^[11]. Here’s the cached copy of the original ^[3], and the modified current version ^[4]. It just goes to show, nothing ever disappears on the internet.

May 5, 2008: 
Heartland has issued a new press release responding to DeSmogBlog’s investigation ^[12] (Heartland’s response is covered by DeSmogBlog here ^[13]). This is what Heartland’s president Joseph Bast says about the change of headline:

[...] In response to the complaints, The Heartland Institute has changed the headlines that its PR department had chosen for some of the documents related to the lists, from “500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares” to “500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares.”
[...]
We plan to make no further changes to the articles or to the lists.

Joseph Bast,
Heartland Foundation, May 5, 2008 ^[12]

Bizarrely, Bast goes on to ask “Why did DeSmogBlog and the disgruntled scientists wait seven months to express their displeasure?”  Well, the scientists hadn’t been notified that they were named as coauthors, and maybe they just don’t study the Heartland Institute’s press releases on a daily basis.

References

1. The Roper Proposal, memorandum from Fred Panzer, May 1, 1972.
   Bates No. 2024274199/4202, Legacy Tobacco Documents Library, University of California, San Francisco
2. The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America, memo from Frank Luntz, The Luntz Research Companies, copy obtained by the Environmental Working Group, March 2003 (page 138)  (WebCite cache)
3. 500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares: Alphabetical List, Dennis T. Avery, Heartland Institute, September 14, 2007 (original version of Ref. [4], cached by F. Bi)
4. 500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares, Dennis T. Avery, Heartland Institute, September 14, 2007 (current, modified version of Ref. [3] )
5. Co-Authors: Alphabetical List, Dennis T. Avery, Heartland Institute, September 14, 2007  (WebCite cache)
6. A Few Scientists Who Won’t Deny Being Deniers, Richard Littlemore, DeSmogBlog, April 30, 2008
7. 500 Scientists with Documented Doubts – about the Heartland Institute ? Richard Littlemore, DeSmogBlog, April 29, 2008
8. Outrage in the Climate Science Community Continues Over the “500 Scientist” List, Kevin Grandia, DeSmogBlog, April 29, 2008
9. Distinguished Scientist Calls Heartland 500 List “Offensive and Wrong”, Richard Littlemore, DeSmogBlog, May 1, 2008
10. Heartland Institute Condemned for “Major Ethical Transgression”, Richard Littlemore, DeSmogBlog, May 2, 2008
11. Heartland Institute silently modifies old press release, F. Bi, “International Journal of Inactivism” blog, May 4, 2008
12. Controversy Arises Over Lists of Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares, Joseph Bast, Heartland Institute, May 5, 2008
13. Heartland Institute Backs off Fraudulent List – Refuses to Apologize, Richard Littlemore, DeSmogBlog, May 5, 2008