So, was there a ‘Bradley effect’? (Answer: No)

The U.S. presidential election is over. Was there a ‘Bradley effect’? To find out, I’ll compare the final day’s polling data against the election outcomes for some key states.

Is there a ‘Bradley effect’ in U.S. election polling?

With Obama ahead in opinion polls, the ‘Bradley effect’ – where polls overestimate the vote share of black candidates – is coming up for discussion. How large is the Bradley effect? In fact, does it still exist at all? A comprehensive quantitative analysis says “no”.